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Wednesday, September 22, 2021

Airbnb, DoorDash report earnings as COVID threatens to slow the IRL economy (again) – TechCrunch

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Home-stay giant Airbnb and on-demand delivery concern DoorDash reported their quarterly results today after the bell.

Both companies were heavily impacted by the onset of COVID-19. Airbnb saw its revenues collapse in 2020 during early lockdowns, leading the company to raise expensive capital and batten its hatches. The company recovered as the year continued, leading to its eventual IPO.

DoorDash, in contrast, managed a simply incredible 2020 as folks stayed home and ordered in. Given that we got both reports on the same day, let’s digest ’em and see how COVID has — and may — impact their results.

Airbnb’s Q2

In the second quarter, Airbnb reported revenues of $1.3 billion, which compares favorably with its Q2 2020 result of $335 million and its 2019 Q2 revenue total of $1.21 billion. In percentage terms, Airbnb’s revenue grew 299% from its Q2 2020 level and 10% from what the company managed during the same period of 2019.

Analysts had expected $1.23 billion in revenue for the period.

Airbnb lost $68 million in the quarter when counting all costs. The company’s adjusted EBITDA, a heavily modified profit metric, came to $217 million in the quarter. Cash from operations in Q2 2021 was $791 million. Looking ahead, here’s what Airbnb had to say regarding its revenue outlook:

[We] expect Q3 2021 revenue to be our strongest quarterly revenue on record and to deliver the highest Adjusted EBITDA dollars and margin ever.

How did the market digest Airbnb’s better-than-expected growth, rising adjusted profit, falling net losses, massive cash generation and expectations of record Q3 revenue? By bidding its shares lower. Airbnb is off around 4.5% in after-hours trading.

Confused? Investors may be worried about the following note from the company, also from the guidance section of its earnings letter:

In the near term, we anticipate that the impact of COVID-19 and the introduction and spread of new variants of the virus, including the Delta variant, will continue to affect overall travel behavior, including how often and when guests book and cancel. As a result, year-over-year comparisons for Nights and Experiences Booked and GBV will continue to be more volatile and non-linear.

While Q3 2021 is looking great for Airbnb, it appears that its future growth could be lumpy or delayed thanks to the ongoing pandemic. There are public indicators pointing to travel rates declining, which could impact Airbnb.

The company’s Q2 results and Q3 anticipations are impressive when compared to where Airbnb was a year ago. But that doesn’t mean that it is entirely out of the COVID woods.

DoorDash’s Q2

Despite generally lower COVID friction in its market during Q2 2021, DoorDash managed to set records for orders and the value of those orders. In the three-month period concluding June 30, 2021, the on-demand food delivery company turned $10.46 billion in order value (marketplace GOV) into $1.24 billion in total revenue. The marketplace GOV number was 70% greater than the Q2 2020 result, while DoorDash’s revenues expanded by 83%.

Investors had expected the company to post $1.08 billion in total revenues, so DoorDash handily bested expectations.

How profitable was DoorDash during the quarter? DoorDash was unprofitable overall, with a net loss of $102 million. In adjusted EBITDA terms, DoorDash saw $113 million in profit during Q2 2021. That’s not too bad, given that Uber cannot manage the same feat with its own food delivery business. DoorDash’s net income was worse than what it managed in Q2 2020, while its adjusted EBITDA improved.

Shares of DoorDash are off around 3.5% in after-hours trading.

Why? It’s not entirely clear. DoorDash said that it expects “Q3 Marketplace GOV to be in a range of $9.3 billion to $9.8 billion, with Q3 Adjusted EBITDA in a range of $0 million to $100 million.” Sure, that’s down a smidgen from its Q2 GOV number, but investors were anticipating DoorDash to post less revenue in Q3 than Q2, so you would think that GOV expectations were also more modest.

Is COVID the answer? Mentions of COVID-19 in the company’s earnings document tend to deal with trailing results and historical efforts to provide relief to restaurants that use DoorDash for orders or delivery. So, there’s not a lot of juice to squeeze there. However, the company did say the following toward the end of its report:

We believe the broad secular shift toward omni-channel local commerce remains nascent. However, the scale and fragmentation of local commerce suggests the problems to be solved will get more difficult, coordination between internal and external stakeholders will become more complex, and vectors for competitive threats will increase. At the same time, we expect the pace of consumer behavioral shifts to slow compared to the extraordinary pace of change in recent quarters.

Simplifying that for us: DoorDash expects slower growth in the future, a more complex business climate and rising competition as it enters new markets. That’s not a mix that would make any investor more excited, we don’t think.

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